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Crystal ball?

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    Northwest Kiteboarding -> Gorge / Portland / Oregon Coast
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BrDRdR

Since 20 Aug 2005
26 Posts

 



PostSun Sep 25, 05 7:48 am    Crystal ball? Reply with quote

Who do you think gets the forcasts closer to what you see on the water; Stuart Hill (iK) or George McLean? Todays forcasts seem to vary between the two, as they did yesterday. George's forcast looks rideable while Stuart's is much less optimistic. Yesterday I headed for the coast to get those forcasted NW 15-20's at Manzanita only to find a SW 3-7. It was a superb day at the coast, but I would have rather been ridin in the gorge. I think these guys do a great job. I know this stuff is difficult, and gets harder this time of year. So maybe a crystal ball should be part of my essential kite gear.
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RidiN is LiviN

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pauls

Since 20 Jun 2005
562 Posts
white salmon
Addicted



PostSun Sep 25, 05 8:10 am     Reply with quote

Iwindsurf only forecasts the Gorge, NWW covers coast, Jones and Sauvies too which is a real plus. We always look and see what NOAA says as well. YWhen you go to the coast look and see what the Medford and Seattle noaa is saying as well as PDX to make sure they are consistent. I think NWW has a higher hit rate for the gorge than iwindsurf - but have to pay attentiion to where and when not just HR itself. Also George only gets one stab at it, iwindsurf gets early AM, 11:30 and evening so the ought to do better eh?

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Mocean

Since 21 Sep 2005
343 Posts
Newport
Obsessed



PostSun Sep 25, 05 8:56 am     Reply with quote

I've found that the best coastal forecasting tool is the MM5 model from the University of Washington. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/rt/gfsinit.12km.html This is often more accurate than NWS. Use the SLP (for the surface weather map) Read the isobars and the windspeed indicators. You'll see that today is looking real good for the central coast.

Steve

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registered

Since 12 Jul 2005
1319 Posts
tsunami
Sandbagger



PostSun Sep 25, 05 9:03 am     Reply with quote

Well here is some input for florence. Triangulate noaa, nw weather and i kite. Use the forcasts for floras lake from i kite for florence prediction. nw weather is the south coast plus 5-10. noaa= 15mph in reality is 20, 20 mph forecast =25 reality, and 25 mph forecast = 30 -40. The weather systems from noaa are always faster, both coming in and going out. If floras lake is blowing before 9 am ,anything above 8-10mph, it is going to crank newport south. And if it is 85 plus in the willamette valley there will most likely be lots of fog at the coast. On the noaa homepage on the left there is a list ,under obsevations you can go to the fcg(florence coast guard) which is another sensor which is just a snap shot and is more accurate for the wind picking up. They also have a cam for lane county that is on the south jetty that you can see kites in if it is a 10 meter day or more. It is across the river from harbor vista park so it takes a 10 meter to see it. yesterday there were several kites on the cam. The coast is trickier on the south wind days, the above is for the days of summer and the northerlies.

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Bill C

Since 15 Sep 2005
202 Posts
Portland
Stoked



PostSun Sep 25, 05 9:14 am     Reply with quote

I got excited about kiting at the beach after reading the Windance forecast. Drove to Seaside and Manzanita and found nothing. Hung out until almost 5:00pm. I could have farted more wind. Went home frustrated.

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Mocean

Since 21 Sep 2005
343 Posts
Newport
Obsessed



PostSun Sep 25, 05 10:56 am     Reply with quote

Should've checked the MM5.

By the way, its whitecapping here in Newport, sunny, and 4-5 foot swell. Slightly menacing fog bank off shore, but it peels away from the coast south of Yaquina Head.

Steve

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