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Sauvies Island Forecasting
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gtm

Since 04 Jul 2005
34 Posts

 



PostSat Aug 27, 05 6:45 am    Sauvies Island Forecasting Reply with quote

I need some help from you Sauvies Island regulars. It seems like when there is a marine push staring like last night (Friday Aug 26th) and Jones is windy that the wind at Sauvies is light. I am gussing the onshore gradients weaken any northerly component to the gradient and in turn Sauvies does not blow. Anyone have any thoughts or experinces related to wind at sauvies during the start of a marine push?

Thanks

George McLean
www.nwweather.com

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KiteKarl

Since 02 Mar 2005
213 Posts
Stockton, California
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PostSat Aug 27, 05 7:47 pm     Reply with quote

That's not my experience with it. Usually if Jones is blowing before or around noon then it'll reach Sauvies by 3 or 4. Yesterday it picked up around 7:00 and was best around 8:00. I find that if the pressure delta is >.06 from Astoria to Portland and the Temperature differential between Jones and Sauvies is in the upper teens then it'll kick.

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gtm

Since 04 Jul 2005
34 Posts

 



PostSun Aug 28, 05 8:08 am     Reply with quote

Thanks for the observations Karl. I am only looking at windspeeds on web and not that diligently. Late afternoon (Friday) it looked light to me but it is interesting that it did not fill in until 7pm. Is that typical? Does it pick up earlier in the day when we are under a more northerly flow pattern with the ridge aloft and not much onshore gradient?

Thanks

George

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pkh

Since 27 Feb 2005
6548 Posts
Couve / Hood
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PostSun Aug 28, 05 9:21 am     Reply with quote

Sometimes when its real hot in Portland it seems like it doesn't kick in until close to sunset or after.

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Mark

Since 20 Jun 2005
3677 Posts
I need my fix because I'm a
Naishaholic



PostMon Aug 29, 05 4:08 pm     Reply with quote

FYI.
You call for wind on tuesday 12-16.
Launch code calls for 3-6.

Here is a link.
http://usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi?sta=KSPB&model=avn&state=OR&Submit=Get+Forecast

Hope this helps. I would love to have accurate forcasting.

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tomas

Since 16 Mar 2005
9 Posts
Portland, OR
Kook



PostMon Aug 29, 05 4:57 pm     Reply with quote

Mark - I use Envrio Model instead of Aviation Model...seems to be best forcast

http://usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi?model=eta&Submit=Change+Source&state=OR&sta=KSPB

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pkh

Since 27 Feb 2005
6548 Posts
Couve / Hood
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PostMon Aug 29, 05 5:26 pm     Reply with quote

Yeah use enviro model...

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gtm

Since 04 Jul 2005
34 Posts

 



PostTue Aug 30, 05 11:09 am    Eta Model Reply with quote

The ETA (what they are calling environmental) model has better terrain resolution since it has smaller grid spacing. This is one reason it is usually more accurate. Let me know hwat happens at Sauvies tonight (Tuesday).

Thanks

George

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pkh

Since 27 Feb 2005
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PostWed Aug 31, 05 6:26 am     Reply with quote

I checked the sensor at around 6:30 and it said 6, so I am guessing it never got going out there.

Today looks much better, with wind already blowing according to the Sauvie sensor. Hopefully these clouds clear out early and things can build.

BTW George - I really like it when you have the tide forecast in your wind forecast. It's a real time saver. Thumb's Up

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gtm

Since 04 Jul 2005
34 Posts

 



PostWed Aug 31, 05 7:49 am     Reply with quote

pkh - thanks for the update. I was hoping for 10-15 in the forecast but not enough heating perhaps. I will be more consistent with posting the tides. I guess I still have a windsurfing bias and have only posted tides when I thought Jones Beach would be windy. Just lazy I guess!

George

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pkh

Since 27 Feb 2005
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PostThu Sep 01, 05 6:09 am     Reply with quote

Sauvies was pretty strong early yesterday. Guys who showed up at 1:45 went out on 9m's with downwind current and were good until around 3. I got there at 4 and rode my 11m all night, though I spend half of the time on my skimboard. Current switched around 5:30, but the wind had died a lot by then.

The wind was very gusty, you'd go from powered and jumping to barely moving in one tack.

So I'd say 1-3 = 18-24mph winds, 3-7 = 12-16mph winds.

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pauls

Since 20 Jun 2005
562 Posts
white salmon
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PostThu Sep 01, 05 7:47 am     Reply with quote

it was around 15 to 18 from 6pm to 7pm then started to ease up a bit. Also quite gusty. Would be great if you can figure out what made the difference between yesterday and Tuesday and put it into your forecast model. Paul
Last edited by pauls on Mon Apr 24, 06 10:13 am; edited 1 time in total

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gtm

Since 04 Jul 2005
34 Posts

 



PostThu Sep 01, 05 10:21 am     Reply with quote

Thanks for the detailed reports. Interesting that it was so gusty and that was stronger early afternoon. Onshore gradients were weak early then increased late in the day. I will have to go back and look at some data from the past few days.

Thanks

George

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pkh

Since 27 Feb 2005
6548 Posts
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PostThu Sep 01, 05 12:54 pm     Reply with quote

Hmmm, only thing that has me tweaked about todays forecast is there is a lot of West in it, looks almost WNW... those days usually don't work out so well for Sauvies. Sensors look good so far though.

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Teague

Since 10 Jul 2005
114 Posts
Really Windy Places
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PostThu Sep 01, 05 1:07 pm     Reply with quote

I notice you guys make mention of a Sauvies Is. sensor but I wasn't aware there was one for that area. Where's it at and where can you access the data from it. If so, is it very accurate?

Thanks.

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pkh

Since 27 Feb 2005
6548 Posts
Couve / Hood
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PostFri Sep 02, 05 6:14 am     Reply with quote

Teague wrote:
I notice you guys make mention of a Sauvies Is. sensor but I wasn't aware there was one for that area. Where's it at and where can you access the data from it. If so, is it very accurate?

Thanks.


Click on the "Wind Sensors" link at the top and then "Sauvies-Kalama" ... The sensor is inland on the island so it usually looks a lot lighter from it. Also it represents the average over the past hour, not a snapshot of the current wind. I find the Scappoose sensor and Fremont sensor more useful, but seeing them all together gives a good picture of what's going on.

Thanks to Mike S. for nwwind.net!

George -
Sauvies was gusty 10-20 early (around 3) and then lightended up a lot as high clouds came in. Wind was very light until 7 or so and then it started to pick up to 15-18mph (or maybe the current had just switched enough to make it good.)

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gtm

Since 04 Jul 2005
34 Posts

 



PostFri Sep 02, 05 8:10 pm     Reply with quote

pkh- Is the early afternoon wind typically gustier than later at Sauvies?

George

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