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Enough is Enough!!!!!
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Post new topic   Reply to topic    Northwest Kiteboarding -> Gorge / Portland / Oregon Coast
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ldhr

Since 21 Jul 2009
1060 Posts
Hood River
XTreme Poster



PostWed Aug 29, 18 12:39 pm    lick your middle finger and stick it up in the air! Reply with quote

phase 1 - you're a grizzled old windsurfer from the 80's
don't leave your van unless it's averaging 25+ and you can rig 4.2 or smaller.
-- accurate wind forecast is crucial.

phase 2 - bored with windsurfing you take up kiting
as long as it's windy 15+ you're happy (obnoxiously happy to your friends who don't kite)
-- accurate forecast is not necessary

phase 3 - you ride a surfboard now
don't leave your van unless it's averaging 25+ and you can pump 7m or smaller.
-- accurate wind forecast is crucial.


phase 4 - you foil now
as long as it's windy 13+ you're happy (obnoxiously happy to those who don't foil)
-- accurate forecast is not necessary

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bigjohn

Since 13 Mar 2012
392 Posts

Obsessed



PostWed Aug 29, 18 12:48 pm     Reply with quote

HRR from igetwind.com is also a valuable tool in my mind. It is currently free however I would pay.

I would also pay for Victor's information if it was readily available all the time via a website.

I currently pay Ikitesurf.

One of the things the computer models provide is a sense of gustiness. (something the human forecasts don't provide that well).

Another nice thing about the computer models is that they can be updated regularly. A good example of this can be seen from the three pictures below.

-Igetwind's hrr from 11:00am run.
-Igetwind's hrr from 12:00 run (notice that forecasts for gusts have increased slightly since the previous run).
-IKite's HRR (I couldn't locate a timestamp of the runtime).

More is better.

Okay enough talk... I'm going kiting!!!


   dougs.png 
   dougs2.png 
   dougs3.png 

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mowing the river like Jack Nicklaus was comin to town.

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bigjohn

Since 13 Mar 2012
392 Posts

Obsessed



PostWed Aug 29, 18 7:07 pm     Reply with quote

Sella wrote:

Sorry Big John but I'm calling BS! Very Happy

Your car is parked in the same spot almost daily. Is Secret really the secret wind sauce??? Nope. Don't get me wrong, it's good, but I bet it has something to do with it being 2 minutes from your house.


Very Happy Missed this one earlier...

Just for the record I hit Arlington three times last week. It was tough making the trek past Rufus (especially when the meter was already touching gusts at 40)... Thats when you really have to believe in the forecasts...

I enjoyed some smooth wind and "decent" swell.

I remember seeing Victor out there so I knew I had made the right choice.

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mowing the river like Jack Nicklaus was comin to town.

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eric

Since 13 Jan 2006
1310 Posts

XTreme Poster



PostThu Aug 30, 18 5:20 am     Reply with quote

<phase 4 - you foil now
as long as it's windy 13+ you're happy (obnoxiously happy to those who don't foil)
-- accurate forecast is not necessary>>


Phase 5?

You add windfoiling to toy van. You go out in sub 11 mph, relearn to up-hual, never get anything done that needs to be at home. Need therapy to decide if you're going to kite, or windfoil from Event Site.

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I only kite if I am alone, or with somebody else.

GO BEARS!

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Inflictor

Since 17 Aug 2013
68 Posts

 



PostThu Aug 30, 18 5:59 am    Igotta laugh! Reply with quote

You guys crack me up! It's now too easy to figure it out for free! Click on the correct Interactive Mapped Observations field from NWS Portland, zoom in on your favorite IWindsurf spot, look at the wind direction vector, the red number is gusts not average( click on the reading and check the log for all the 5 minute readings for the past week! graph, rel hum, direction, temp, for free!), if the vector lines up with the corridor there, it is probably good there at that time, if not, probably windy but not as good as it sometimes can be. Then use your eyes, WEBCAMS! That's it, so fun, plan your day and see you out there! Inflictor

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Larry Pinta

Since 21 Aug 2013
48 Posts

 



PostThu Aug 30, 18 6:48 am     Reply with quote

I am thinking of making the 14hr drive from Canada for next week. Would stay Sunday - Thursday but at a loss for long term conditions. I am learning to foil so have that in my back pocket if it’s light.

Any insight would be appreciated.

I have checked iKitesurf but hoping for some local knowledge.

Thanks

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bmmiller

Since 20 Oct 2015
5 Posts

Kook



PostThu Aug 30, 18 7:24 am    iWindsurf Model Run Times Reply with quote

Replying to bigjohn...

I'm one of the iWindsurf Gorge meteorologists that is "good but not great". Wink

When you're viewing any of the forecast model options on iWindsurf or iKitesurf, switch to Detailed mode. (In the image you attached above you were in Detailed mode.) The run time is the row labeled "Run".

In your attached example, it says "19z". 19z is the same as 19UTC, which corresponds to 12PM PDT.

On a somewhat related note, about 7 or 8 years ago, our entire Gorge forecasting team (Crysta, myself, Stu, and Mike) actually spent about 3 days with Victor the Inflictor and with Bart discussing Gorge forecasting. It was a big pow wow. George McLean was even there. At that time we invited Victor to be a part of the iWindsurf team but he declined. Maybe he wants to reconsider?

We obviously don't strive for mediocrity. But, as has been stated, we can improve. So, any comments, complaints, compliments, quandaries, etc. Please share with us. Email our support team or PM me, and I'll happily share my email with you to correspond directly.

-Ben

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ldhr

Since 21 Jul 2009
1060 Posts
Hood River
XTreme Poster



PostThu Aug 30, 18 7:41 am     Reply with quote

Here's what Victor is talking about - the Iwind observations available on NWS.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true&wfo=pqr&basemap=OpenStreetMap&boundaries=true,false&obs_popup=true


   nws.png 

Last edited by ldhr on Thu Aug 30, 18 8:22 am; edited 1 time in total

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Mark

Since 20 Jun 2005
3618 Posts
I need my fix because I'm a
Naishaholic



PostThu Aug 30, 18 8:18 am     Reply with quote

ldhr wrote:
Here's what Victor is talking about - the Iwind observations available on NWS.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true&wfo=pqr&basemap=OpenStreetMap&boundaries=true,false&obs_popup=true


Thanks for the link LDHR.. Good find Victor!

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Cleverly disguised as an adult...

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ldhr

Since 21 Jul 2009
1060 Posts
Hood River
XTreme Poster



PostThu Aug 30, 18 9:46 am    Re: iWindsurf Model Run Times Reply with quote

bmmiller wrote:

I'm one of the iWindsurf Gorge meteorologists that is "good but not great". Wink

When you're viewing any of the forecast model options on iWindsurf or iKitesurf, switch to Detailed mode.
-Ben


Ben - the detailed models is why I rate your service as good - not great.
It's not in synch with your human forecasts.

The detailed model predicts 8 mph for Stevenson today.
Currently it's averaging 17.
The detailed model predicts 12-13 mph for Swell today.
Currently averaging 19.

A guy wants to know long range if he should drive from Canada next week,
Looking at your models the answer would be "don't bother - models forecast light winds".

But if today is a good example - he would have missed out on decent winds if he used the models which consistently forecast 50% too light.

Your daily forecast, 3 day, and current conditions are GREAT!
The forecast models bring your overall rating down.

Still a bargain at subscriber prices - satisfied customer for 20 years.

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bigjohn

Since 13 Mar 2012
392 Posts

Obsessed



PostThu Aug 30, 18 10:20 am    Re: iWindsurf Model Run Times Reply with quote

bmmiller wrote:
Replying to bigjohn...

In your attached example, it says "19z". 19z is the same as 19UTC, which corresponds to 12PM PDT.

-Ben


Ben, Thanks for explaining this. I now see that you are keeping your computer models updated regularly (something I did not previously understand). It would be nice if the computer automatically converted UTC to PDT for me...

I will continue to be a happy subscriber to ikitesurf for multiple reasons.
1) I like your human forecasts
2) Your site is easy to navigate (I still use many features from the old site).
3) You provide a plethora of information, history, and statistics.
4) It is my understanding that you paid for and maintain the wind meters that are now available via Victors link. Thus without Ikite's service those sites would not currently exist. Without continuing to support Ikite those sites will not be maintained and new meters will not be developed.

There is always an opportunity for additional entries into the wind market. I will support all of those that I feel are bringing value including my friend Victor.

If I might ask for a request it would be a report card system.
Forecasts vs Actuals.

It would be nice to have a simple table that shows the different forecasts vs actuals such that we can go back in time and learn. We could learn how different wind meters don't represent properly in certain conditions (Wind direction seriously affects the accuracy of most wind meters). We could learn how some models are better for some situations (light wind, East vs West wind, different locations, time of year).

It would be nice to be able to go back in time and look at a site's forecasts after you just kited it to gain a better sense of forecast accuracy(I currently do this regularly with wind meter history).

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mowing the river like Jack Nicklaus was comin to town.

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Wind Slither

Since 04 Mar 2005
2308 Posts
The 503
CRAB-KILLER



PostThu Aug 30, 18 11:06 am     Reply with quote

I track and forecast wind based on the animal windsock kite scale. Today is a solid 4.9. Tomorrow should be about the same. Thumb's Up

   20180829_171724.jpg 

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A.K.

Since 01 Jul 2006
171 Posts

Stoked



PostThu Aug 30, 18 7:04 pm     Reply with quote

Victor, go work for ikitesurf already. Seems like a simple solution to me. We get to see your forecast and you get paid. Ikitesurf already has the amazing infrastructure in place. I mean, am I missing something here? Because that seems like a pretty simple solution to your wind forecast rant.

I find ikitesurf to be valuable resource. I am not going to throw them under the bus after receiving 10 years of solid forecasts. This August was particularly weird. We had this hot humid overhang in Portland that lasted longer than I have ever seen. I am sure that confounded the forecasters. Ikitesurf easily saves me more in gas and time than the cost of subscription.

I have not taken the extra step to go beyond the forecast and start studying models, charts, pressure gradients etc. And perhaps it is time I should. That being said. Most of us pay for the convenience factor of the forecast. My primary concern is to avoid being skunked. I don't want to go, get skunked, and end up wasting my time and money driving from Portland. However, if the forecast was for no wind and all of a sudden it ends up being windy. I am less concerned. Because thats not getting skunked - I would have found something else to do. In this sense ikitesurf is a clear winner. I focus my efforts on all day long solidly windy days via their forecast and frankly, prior to this year weird August weather, I had not been skunked in a very very long time (years).

Last edited by A.K. on Thu Aug 30, 18 8:09 pm; edited 3 times in total

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eric

Since 13 Jan 2006
1310 Posts

XTreme Poster



PostThu Aug 30, 18 7:19 pm     Reply with quote

I'm an ikitesurf/iwindsurf fan too, and have been for many years, and will remain so for years to come. There is a lot of great information, that's easily accessible.

That said, this summer the forecasts were almost comically off. It kind of became a joke at the Event Site. It didn't seem like to me, that there was any kind of "coming to Jesus" moment for the forecasters. Rather, it was more of the same day after day--way off.

I foil now, and the foreasts almost don't matter, because it's almost always foilable, I live in HR, and I can simply zip down to the river when the leaves rustle in my yard. For others though, who don't have the benefit of the local advantage, I think it got pretty frustrating. The forecast is a part of what is paid for. I think it's reasonable to expect it to be mostly right, most of the time. I don't feel like that was the case this summer.

My $0.02

_________________
I only kite if I am alone, or with somebody else.

GO BEARS!

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nateone

Since 01 Aug 2010
33 Posts
Fairview, OR
 



PostThu Aug 30, 18 7:34 pm     Reply with quote

I kite all year and usually get about 150 sessions. I use iKitesurf and the forecast map quick look model. It’s pretty good at showing where the strongest wind will be. The values are bs but that doesn’t matter. I’ll figure out what to rig when I get there. Ikite is quick and convenient and having quick access to the sensor readings in a list organised by wind speed is worth a few dollars per month.

I have a lot of respect for professional and recreational forecasters but I have ADHD and can’t focus long enough for anything more complicated haha

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nesterg

Since 10 Sep 2006
19 Posts

 



PostThu Aug 30, 18 7:41 pm     Reply with quote

Huh that’s weird When I follow the NWS link above I only get the free weather stations not the subscription stations like swell and Viento Arlington etc.

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ivog2001

Since 29 Jul 2011
16 Posts
PNW
 



PostThu Aug 30, 18 10:23 pm     Reply with quote

The same here, no ikitesurf readings on NWS site. BTW, another satisfied Ikite/wind subscriber here. Being using it since day one.......yet, miss the extra wind wisdom/accuracy that George Mclean was able to provide while back.....

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