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Kodiak
Since 01 Aug 2005
1114 Posts
Slidey
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barfly
Since 31 Mar 2005
1210 Posts
Seaside
BRACKISH
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 Thu Sep 14, 06 6:58 am |
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During the last El Nino in 97-98, I lived in SoCal and remember it pretty well. Lots of rain and snow (Mammoth got well over 500"). The swell was huge most of the winter and spring but I would say overall it produced all-time conditions for surfing.
I don't know what it was like up here in the PNW and most of us weren't kiters then but rainy weather and monster swell usually make for some sailable conditions on the coast with leading/clearing winds from the storms. Can anyone remember what it was like up here?
Here's a good write up (14 meters!!): http://apt.allenpress.com/aptonline/?request=get-abstract&issn=0749-0208&volume=018&issue=01&page=0175 |
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Onad
Since 04 Mar 2005
1435 Posts
Coast<<PDX>>Gorge
XTreme Poster
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| Thu Sep 14, 06 7:31 am |
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Wonder what effect EL NIÑO will have on the East winds this fall?
Last fall was epic!!
This site has some good info and a nice current condtions ocean temperature display:
 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
PS I’m sure glad I just got a new 5/3 wetsuit from ProMotion for this winter Barfly!! |
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Mocean
Since 21 Sep 2005
343 Posts
Newport
Obsessed
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| Thu Sep 14, 06 8:43 am |
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I kept a log during that time, and although my notes are somewhat jumbled, I can summarize the weather for those months. In general, the Oregon Coast had a drier winter season during 97/98, with lots of big swells coming from the southwest. This was due to the jetstream focusing the storm tracks down into California.
October and November were characterized by a mix of south winds (a few days up to 60 knots) and some nice weather days with east or north winds. My last day windsurfing in N winds was October 17th that year. Towards the end of October we got some 40-60 knot south winds and 25-foot swell. Actually windsurfed on the bays about 4 days in October and 2 days in November.
November had some clean surf conditions then later in the month it started getting gnarly, particularly on November 19th, when it blew 40-60 knots all day and the swell was 34 feet at 14 seconds. About 5 rainy days in November and 4 in December.
Then during the last week of November and much of December we had clean surf conditions with east winds with swell ranging from 4-15 feet.
January of 98 had quite a few sailable south wind days with moderate swell, then a week of east winds and good surf conditions, followed by a mix of south and east winds for the last part of the month with swell often huge. Probably at least 10 days were over 20 knots (south winds) with a couple in the 30-50 knot range. At least 15 rainy days.
February was mostly south winds, with quite a few days that we windsurfed on the bays here. Swell was huge a lot of the time, with at least 6 days that were over 20 feet. Not much rain, with only about 5 rainy days noted on my calendar.
March was mostly lighter south winds, mixed with some westerlies, and notably the first north wind surfsailing session (this was pre-kiting obviously) was on March 5th. Only about 6-8 rainy days.
El Nino winters can be hard to predict for the Oregon Coast, as slight shifts in the jet stream can mean we either get drenched with warm rain events and storms, or we stay dry as California gets pummelled.
After a while you just get sick of trying to ride in south winds, with the flukey on/off characteristics, cold everything, rain, dependence on tides (unless you're out in the surf which is often suicide) and crappy launches. Every once in a while there is that magic day that comes together though...
I haven't heard anything other than the prediction of a neutral or weak El Nino for this year - would be interested to view the sources of anything that differs from this. I work closely with Jon Allan (author of the paper referenced above) in my work, so I can often hit him up for his opinions. He lives and works here in Newport. 1998/99 was definitely the big one for us, with huge storm events that shattered all pre-conceived ideas of what a 100-year storm is. The March 3rd storm had a significant wave height of 14.1 meters. The important thing to realize is that "significant wave height" is only the average height of the highest one-third of the waves measured over a twelve hour period. Individual waves can be much higher (even double) the significant wave height. An 80-foot plus wave was recorded on at least one offshore bouy around the time of the New Carissa event!! |
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Kataku2k3
Since 14 Aug 2005
3753 Posts
Los Angeles, CA
Videographer
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| Thu Sep 14, 06 8:53 am |
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That's great Steve, thanks for the detailed info!  |
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Onad
Since 04 Mar 2005
1435 Posts
Coast<<PDX>>Gorge
XTreme Poster
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| Thu Sep 14, 06 9:09 am |
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Yah, great stuff Steve!
Keep it coming. ~D |
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pjc
Since 06 Mar 2005
649 Posts
Addicted
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| Thu Sep 14, 06 9:14 am |
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| i moved here in '97 and rode my bike everywhere as i didn't yet own a car and i don't recall it being dry. not like the bush election droughts (00-01 and 04-05). certainly the snow wasn't as bad those years... |
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Gman
Since 11 Feb 2006
4907 Posts
Portland
Unstrapped
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| Thu Sep 14, 06 9:32 am |
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| pjc wrote: | | i moved here in '97 and rode my bike everywhere as i didn't yet own a car and i don't recall it being dry. not like the bush election droughts (00-01 and 04-05). certainly the snow wasn't as bad those years... |
Ahh.. but '96 was a fine year - skiing pow at Meadows on Oct 10 with 3 feet Nov 18 & 19... '97 I don't think things got rolling till after new years. |
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pjc
Since 06 Mar 2005
649 Posts
Addicted
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| Thu Sep 14, 06 9:49 am |
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| yeah i was sad to miss '96-'97. that was the year the willamette almost jumped it's banks. but '00-'01, 04-05 were intolerable - so long as its not that bad i won't complain. |
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J.P.
Since 10 Mar 2005
638 Posts
Addicted
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| Thu Sep 14, 06 10:33 am Re: El Nino |
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I’d like to believe the farmer almanac's predictions however it's rather difficult when they're based on "a top secret mathematical and astronomical formula"
DATE: August 26, 2006
For Immediate Release
Contact: Peter Geiger, Philom., Editor 207-755-2246 • pgeiger@farmersalmanac.com
Sandi Duncan, Philom., Managing Editor, 908-689-0960 • sduncan@farmersalmanac.com
Tired of the Heat? Hang on – 2007 Farmers’ Almanac™ Predicts “SHIVERY IS NOT DEAD”
Lewiston, ME: After a brutally hot summer in most of the country, cool news is on the way. The new edition of the Farmers’ Almanac, which blows into town every year around the end of August, contains some chilly predictions for the upcoming winter.
"Shivery is not dead” reveals the 2007 Farmers’ Almanac, alluding to its winter weather forecast. “While global warming has taken up much of our attention (as well as news coverage), our winter predictions are pointing towards widespread cold from coast to coast, especially for the western sections of the country,” shares Peter Geiger, Philom., Editor. Geiger continues, “The cold may not be as frigid as 30 or 40 years ago, but we do expect this to be the coldest winter we’ve seen for quite a few years.” And, after last year’s unusual warmth, this chill might make winter harder than usual.
The 2007 Farmers’ Almanac, released August 28, 2006, predicts the frigid temperatures, as much as 20 degrees below seasonal norms (and nearly 40 degrees colder than last winter), for Montana, the Dakotas and parts of Wyoming. For the Gulf Coast up through New England, unseasonably cold, or “shivery,” conditions are expected.
Snow, and lots of it, is also forecast for the nation’s midsection, parts of New England, and the mountains of the Pacific Northwest. “The Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley may be the only area spared the extreme cold,” reveals Sandi Duncan, Philom., Managing Editor, “but this is not to say this area won’t be without its cold spells and significant snowfalls.”
The Farmers’ Almanac, which has been providing long-range weather predictions every year since 1818, bases its forecasts on a top secret mathematical and astronomical formula. Many who follow its predictions say they are 80 to 85% accurate. Last winter, the Farmers’ Almanac had forewarned of a “polar coaster” winter, with lots of fluctuations on the thermometer. While the winter warmth and lack of snow in many areas made headlines, the 2007 Farmers’ Almanac uses New York City as an example of its polar coaster prediction’s accuracy
According to the Farmers’ Almanac, “The [New York] city experienced one of its driest and mildest winters in recent years, yet it also received more than 40 inches of snow. This was the fourth consecutive year that a snowfall total of at least 40 inches was recorded.”
If you don’t like the shivery forecast, hang on. The 2007 Farmers’ Almanac, which includes 16 months (September 2006 through December 2007) of zoned weather predictions, is also calling for a very warm and dry summer for most areas of the country.
In addition to predicting the weather, the 2007 Farmers’ Almanac provides unique advice, witty wisdom, and informative articles on ways to slow down and enjoy the simple pleasures in life. “Gardening calendars, fishing information, astronomical times, recipes and more are also an integral part of the Farmers’ Almanac,” states Geiger. In the all-new 2007 Farmers’ Almanac, you can learn how to use Jell-O to cure smelly feet, discover what turducken is and why you might want to serve it at your next holiday dinner, learn why you should fill your gas tank in the morning rather than the afternoon, find out if cold weather really does cause colds, and pick up tips on driving in foul weather, ideas on how to protect your pets from weather’s extremes, and much more.
This year’s Farmers’ Almanac is propounding a way to capture the maximum amount of daylight without causing more morning darkness. Daylight saving time is being expanded in 2007, but just how much daylight are we really saving? The Farmers’ Almanac looks at the pros and cons of daylight saving time and proposes its own, better plan to utilize DST to its fullest.
Available at www.FarmersAlmanac.com, and at grocery and bookstores everywhere, starting August 28, 2006, the 2007 Farmers’ Almanac contains page after page of valuable, informative and fun tips, secrets, ideas, and articles. “It contains something for everyone – young and old, city or farm folk; it is a must-read,” says Geiger.
About the Farmers’ Almanac:
The Farmers’ Almanac, which features an orange and green cover, has been published every year since 1818. It not only contains useful and interesting articles but also long-range weather predictions, gardening advice, recipes, and more. Editors Peter Geiger and Sandi Duncan are available for lively and informative interviews by phone or in person. They love to talk about the weather, share some useful Almanac trivia and advice, and discuss the latest movement sweeping across North America, “getting back to the simple life.”
The Farmers' Almanac is such an important part of American life that is has inspired the creation of a new television program, now airing on public television stations throughout the United States. “Farmers' Almanac TV”™, a new 30-minute magazine-style series, brings to life stories celebrating the good life of both rural and urban America, with segments in over a dozen lifestyle categories, including gardening, cooking, wellness, weather, and household hints. More information on the series can be found by visiting www.FarmersAlmanacTV.com
Farmers’ Almanac and Farmers’ Almanac TV trademarks are licensed from Almanac Publishing Company. |
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