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thurmondmb
Since 10 Jul 2018
64 Posts
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 Thu Aug 06, 20 11:32 am Far East Wind this weekend 8/8 and 8/9 |
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Pro forecast on iKitesurf didn't mention anything about the far east gorge (rufus, arlington, 3 mile) this weekend. Does anyone have an idea if this will go or not?
Thanks
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ldhr
Since 21 Jul 2009
1471 Posts
Hood River
XTreme Poster
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| Thu Aug 06, 20 12:11 pm |
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Saturday mid teens, sunday light.
You can click on any of the sites, click on model tables, click on the date you're interested.
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thurmondmb
Since 10 Jul 2018
64 Posts
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| Thu Aug 06, 20 12:19 pm |
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Thanks,
but one thing I noticed was pro forecast for the ES says mid 20's on Saturday, but the forecast area you mentioned only shows teens...
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wylieflyote
Since 30 Jun 2006
1634 Posts
Puget Sound & Wa. Coast
XTreme Poster
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Jonpnw
Since 22 Jul 2010
1323 Posts
Pacific Northwest
XTreme Poster
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| Thu Aug 06, 20 5:50 pm Wind ! |
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It’s has been windy for almost 40 days , bring your bikes & SUPS and plan for alternative adventures and surely you will have kiteable winds ! 🤙🏾
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Slingshot | Ride Engine |Try before you buy | PM me
Join the Columbia Gorge Water Sports Association. http://gorgewindsurfing.org/ |
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gtm
Since 04 Jul 2005
35 Posts
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bigjohn
Since 13 Mar 2012
663 Posts
Addicted
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| Thu Aug 06, 20 8:26 pm Re: Far East Wind this weekend 8/8 and 8/9 |
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| thurmondmb wrote: | Pro forecast on iKitesurf didn't mention anything about the far east gorge (rufus, arlington, 3 mile) this weekend. Does anyone have an idea if this will go or not?
Thanks |
Two days out is where the WRF model really shines. Usually more accurate than the GFS. Ikitesurf provides easy access to these models (although the link above also provides access for free, just more difficult to access and decipher). Check the HRRR model before you go out as it is usually more accurate on a short term basis.
East should be kiteable on Saturday. Looks like strongest wind around dougs, but Rufus and Arlington should both work.
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Arlington forecast this weekend.png |
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Rufus forecast this weekend.png |
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Dougs forecast this weekend.png |
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Kiting starts at 40MPH |
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bigjohn
Since 13 Mar 2012
663 Posts
Addicted
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| Thu Aug 06, 20 8:52 pm Arlington today |
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I hesitate to do this...
But I see a lot of comments regarding low wind speeds for Saturday.
Saturday will blow. Not like today, but it will be plenty windy.
You've got to learn how to read the forecasts. Actuals are usually higher than the forecasted numbers.
See graph of actuals today vs forecasted WRF numbers above.
Additionally, I will remind that Arlington is an advanced launch. You need to walk through a rock channel to access the water. Intermediate kiters should NOT attempt this launch.
If you question your skills this launch is not for you.
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Arlington actuals today.png |
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Kiting starts at 40MPH |
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ldhr
Since 21 Jul 2009
1471 Posts
Hood River
XTreme Poster
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| Fri Aug 07, 20 1:06 pm |
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| thurmondmb wrote: | Thanks,
but one thing I noticed was pro forecast for the ES says mid 20's on Saturday, but the forecast area you mentioned only shows teens... |
Actual winds are usually 20-30% higher than the forecast models.
Forecast models are for the shoreline and surrounding topography - winds on the river are usually higher plus the river current adds a couple MPH to the wind in your kite.
Forecast model says 18 gusting to 22, expect 22 to be your average.... maybe more.
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bigjohn
Since 13 Mar 2012
663 Posts
Addicted
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| Fri Aug 07, 20 1:25 pm |
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| ldhr wrote: | | thurmondmb wrote: | Thanks,
but one thing I noticed was pro forecast for the ES says mid 20's on Saturday, but the forecast area you mentioned only shows teens... |
Actual winds are usually 20-30% higher than the forecast models.
Forecast models are for the shoreline and surrounding topography - winds on the river are usually higher plus the river current adds a couple MPH to the wind in your kite.
Forecast model says 18 gusting to 22, expect 22 to be your average.... maybe more. |
I would add to this.
For me, I only look at Gusts, not averages. I want to know how big of a kite I can hold down. So, if it gusted for 5 minutes of a 3 hour session at 40mph then it was a 40mph session in my mind despite the fact there may have been lulls below 15mph and moments when it was only gusting to 25mph. However, when that 40mph gust hit I wanted to know I had the ability to hold my kite down.
Forecasts are kind of the reverse of this thought process. They are based upon averages. The longer the time span the lower the average. If you look at a forecast with 3 hour time span increments what the forecast is really telling you is that on average for that entire 3 hour span the forecast is predicting an average speed (not peak speed). This applies whether you are looking at averages or gusts.
So, taking my example above while I considered my 3 hour session to be a 40mph session. A forecast might say it was a 35 mph (gusts) and 25 mph (averages) session.
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Kiting starts at 40MPH |
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bigjohn
Since 13 Mar 2012
663 Posts
Addicted
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| Sat Aug 08, 20 9:09 am HRRR forecasts |
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So Saturday's HRRR forecasts are now available. These get updated hourly so check again before you go out.
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| Arlington HRRR Forecast |
Arlington HRRR.png |
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| Rufus HRRR Forecast |
Rufus HRRR.png |
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Kiting starts at 40MPH |
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FreerideWhiteSalmon
Since 17 May 2012
64 Posts
CGKA Member
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| Sun Aug 09, 20 1:35 am |
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3 mile blew nicely today. I started at about 2:30 on a 5m and foil, barely making it work. At 3pm on the dot it ramped up and I was well powered for the next hour.
Took a break and went back out on an 8m and TT and was completely lit. Really epic day with some nice swell that built on the outside.
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thurmondmb
Since 10 Jul 2018
64 Posts
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| Sun Aug 09, 20 7:45 am |
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Thanks for all the replies! Appreciate the detailed responses on reading the models 
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