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La Ventana hurricane update

 
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moondog

Since 15 Aug 2007
556 Posts
white salmon
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PostThu Sep 26, 19 10:53 am    La Ventana hurricane update Reply with quote

A Meteorological Followup - (contributed by Wes of MasViento wind forecasts) Last Friday Hurricane Lorena made a direct hit on La Ventana. Many were surprised, and it was a shock to me as well when a friend and former colleague at the Central Pacific hurricane center in Honolulu texted me at about 4 pm Friday that Lorena had made a sharp right hand turn and was headed directly for us. Like all of us that were here, I only had a few hours to prepare everything. I sincerely hope that your losses were not too big.

So why was Lorena such a surprise? While the track forecasts for hurricanes have improved dramatically over the past several decades, there are still some storms that will deviate outside the “cone of uncertainty “. That cone is just a graphical representation of where about 65% of similar storms have tracked in the past. As late as noon on Friday, La Ventana was well outside of that cone. Forecast uncertainty was very high however, as the steering winds had become weak and difficult to forecast.

During the early afternoon, upper-level winds shifted and Hurricane Lorena made a sharp right turn and began moving northward up the eastern coast of BCS. The center stayed just offshore which allowed it to maintain its intensity.

Here is a link to a video of the hurricane center forecasts to show how extreme the change in track was. I’m not criticizing my former colleagues there, but rather showing that on average, one out of three times hurricanes do change track and will move outside of the “cone”. The bottom line is that it is important to remember that hurricane forecasts are not certain, but probabilistic and if one is near we need to remain vigilant. When making decisions about what actions to take, remember that even though it may appear to be a low probability, if it hits it could be very high impact.

Community Impact - (contributed by Donna Green donnalgr@gmail.com) I have taken pictures, videos and listened to stories from people in Los Planes, Punta Arena, Agua Amarga, LaVentana and El Sargento. This is what I have gathered from others and my personal experience. Hurricane Lorena was a SNEAKER! We were all watching eebmike.com, windyty.com and NOAA and of course all the chat groups. Lorena was supposed to veer left, well, she followed straight up the Sea of Cortez. I do not know wind speeds and what not. I was in my shower with my animals as many others were in their showers and/or closets. There was a lot of damage to structures, palapas, windows, rv’s businesses and homes.

That really wasn’t the story.

The story was how the next day, without a blink of an eye, people were out with pick up trucks and trailers pulling out debris, palapas, downed vegetation, from yards and metal roof cave-in’s. Checking on one another. Handing coffee off to those that didn’t have it. Smiling and waving giving the thumbs up or thumbs down notifying if they needed help. We had almost every power pole down and then some on the main carreterra. No electricity and no internet.

I drove out to the T intersection, for that’s where you can get internet service, to notify family and all that we are ok. Come marching in one after another, CFE trucks. CFE officials in the smaller trucks to assess the damages. Telmex trucks. There was a military helicopter and a CFE helicopter that did a fly over. Later that morning, we had Mexico Red Cross and Mexico Military help here.

We are still cleaning up and removing debris and picking up the pieces of businesses and homes. CFE Trucks, Telmex, Zofemat, LaPaz Police with trailers, all here to help us get ready for all of you! All the off season stores, taco shops, hot dog stands, laundry services, auto services, et al, are up and running, even though they have damage. Please support the locals. Lot of advertising on the FB groups from Los Planes, San Antonio, La Ventana, El Sargento, looking for work. Support them. We are ready for the 2019/2020 Season. Please come down and spread the love!

Have questions for the community? Got answers? Let us know.

Courier needed for a set of keys to LV/ES. I can send them to you. I need to let somebody have access to my RV to assess and repair the damage from Lorena. russell@vientosports.com
Recommendation for renting a car for 33 days, Oct 20 to Nov 21, pickup and return La Paz airport or nearby. Richard rlshirey@hotmail.com
Looking for the owner of the Bounder motor home with white water barrel on back and Washington State lic. plates and a Red VW car with Quebec lic. plates. (photos here). They are stored in El Sargento in the yard of Marisela Sandez and Rogelio Calderon. Both were damaged by Hurricane Lorena. Please contact Donna Green donnalgr@gmail.com

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moondog

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moondog

Since 15 Aug 2007
556 Posts
white salmon
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PostThu Sep 26, 19 10:56 am     Reply with quote

Los Barilles was hit also, but not as severely as LV, Cabo and La Paz wind and rain.
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