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Human wind forecasters vs computer models - Game ON

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    Northwest Kiteboarding -> Gorge / Portland / Oregon Coast
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bigjohn

Since 13 Mar 2012
434 Posts

Obsessed



PostSun May 26, 19 7:54 am    Human wind forecasters vs computer models - Game ON Reply with quote

Interesting day today where the human forecast varies considerably from the computer models.

I am posting the HRRR models as of about 8:30am for the region.

Let's see who gets it right!!!


   20190526HRR1.png 
   20190526HRR2.png 

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bigjohn

Since 13 Mar 2012
434 Posts

Obsessed



PostSun May 26, 19 12:21 pm     Reply with quote

Mid day updates.

So far human forecasters were correct in forecasting kiteable wind in Swell City/HR region. However computer models were correct in forecasting non-kiteable conditions east of Hood River.

Both Human Forecasters as well as computer models have updated their predictions:

Human forcasters downgraded wind out east.
Computer models increasing forecasts for kiteable wind in HR/Dougs region (late).


   20190526HRR3.png 

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eric

Since 13 Jan 2006
1468 Posts

XTreme Poster



PostSun May 26, 19 12:52 pm     Reply with quote

http://w3.gorge.net/niknas/webcam.jpg

Got my lawn mowed, so there's that...

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https://www.wildwood-academy.org/

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macgruber

Since 06 Dec 2011
438 Posts
SE PDX volcano
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PostSun May 26, 19 3:32 pm     Reply with quote

IKitesurf human forecast is pretty brief for us at the north coast. I like their computer forecast better and use the gust as an average at Manzanita. Avg 21-25 today which was the computer forecasted gusts. Low teens is what the “Pro”forecasted. Human forecast is way too wordy and varied for the Gorge. I miss Laura’s consistently worded forecasts

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moondog

Since 15 Aug 2007
539 Posts
white salmon
Addicted

CGKA Member


PostSun May 26, 19 3:40 pm     Reply with quote

I noticed this week that all the human forecasters really missed how strong the wind got each day. May is a tough month to forecast. All the Lows around are making it challenging. One day we had thunderstorms traveling from the East to the West, very unusual!
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moondog

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bigjohn

Since 13 Mar 2012
434 Posts

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PostSun May 26, 19 5:50 pm     Reply with quote

Looks like no session for me today... Unless I want to drive to Rufus for NNE winds...

Pretty much all the forecasts were off today. A couple of momentary hits here and there, but for the most part nobody got it right.

Lesson learned. When the computer models and human forecasts show considerable variation then chances are nobody's gonna get it right.

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ivog2001

Since 29 Jul 2011
18 Posts
PNW
 



PostTue May 28, 19 9:39 pm     Reply with quote

Boy, did the paid forecasters missed it again this (Tue) morning......

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Post new topic   Reply to topic    Northwest Kiteboarding -> Gorge / Portland / Oregon Coast All times are GMT - 8 Hours
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