|
previous topic :: next topic |
| Author |
Message |
laf1greg
Since 02 Jun 2018
11 Posts
|
 Sat Jun 02, 18 8:59 am my new poject : iGetwind.com |
 |
|
Hi my name is Grégoire Lafortune, I'm a windsurfer and software developer from Montreal Canada.
Since 2016 I'm working on a new project : iGetwind.com. It's a wind/waves/tides forecast web application for kitesurfers and windsurfers worldwide.
I made it easy to compare forecast models in North America : HRRR, NAM, GFS (NOAA) + HDPRS (CAN). Plus waves/tides for any location. You just have to click on the map where you want to get the forecasts.
I invite you to try it and send me feedback :
https://igetwind.com
Thank you and good wind!
Grégoire
|
|
|
SalmonSlayer
Since 27 Nov 2005
648 Posts
Addicted
CGKA Member
|
| Sat Jun 02, 18 9:17 am |
|
|
| I really like the way you have it set up so I can see my top places side by side.
|
|
|
bigjohn
Since 13 Mar 2012
663 Posts
Addicted
|
| Sun Jun 03, 18 1:08 pm |
|
|
Hey Grégoire,
I really like your site.
One of the things that stood out to me was that it appears your HRRR forcast models are updating every 4 - 5 hours (depending upon location).
Am I reading this correct?
If so, this would be considerably more current than the forecasts I currently review.
 |
| |
Hrrr update interval.png |
_________________
Kiting starts at 40MPH |
|
|
wylieflyote
Since 30 Jun 2006
1647 Posts
Puget Sound & Wa. Coast
XTreme Poster
|
| Sun Jun 03, 18 1:46 pm |
|
|
Hey Big,
Are all these automated fx sites just getting a lot better at predictions in the last year or two? Or is my almost skunkless life simply a combination of dumb luck, and foil-anything? Knock wood.
Lately, I've had many occasions where I'll show up and see no wind, then double check my app... "Oh, It's in 20 minutes, not now" Bingo.
Kip
| bigjohn wrote: | Hey Grégoire,
I really like your site.
One of the things that stood out to me was that it appears your HRRR forcast models are updating every 4 - 5 hours (depending upon location).
Am I reading this correct?
If so, this would be considerably more current than the forecasts I currently review. |
_________________
CGKA Member
-------
Kip Wylie |
|
|
laf1greg
Since 02 Jun 2018
11 Posts
|
| Sun Jun 03, 18 3:14 pm |
|
|
| Quote: | | it appears your HRRR forcast models are updating every 4 - 5 hours |
Hi bigjohn, I'm really happy you like the app and thanks for your question.
HRRR forecast is updated every hour on iGetwind. The reason you see 4.5 hours delay is it comes a little late. ( I display it on igetwind as soon as NOAA let me download it ). So basically on the image you showed, you will get 13h forecast at 14:30 and then 14h forecast at 15:30h. And yes HRRR is a really good forecast and it can be really good to take last minute decision.
| Quote: | | Are all these automated fx sites just getting a lot better at predictions in the last year or two? |
The answer is yes! Most of the forecast you see on most weather website comes from NOAA. On igetwind I also show LAM wich is from canada weather agency and ICON wich is from germany weather agency. In fact these forecasts are calculated with huge computer and tons of input data and their software are getting better and faster every year.
|
|
|
bigjohn
Since 13 Mar 2012
663 Posts
Addicted
|
| Sun Jun 03, 18 3:25 pm |
|
|
| wylieflyote wrote: | Hey Big,
Are all these automated fx sites just getting a lot better at predictions in the last year or two? Or is my almost skunkless life simply a combination of dumb luck, and foil-anything? Knock wood.
Lately, I've had many occasions where I'll show up and see no wind, then double check my app... "Oh, It's in 20 minutes, not now" Bingo.
Kip
|
Kip, I agree. Forcasts in The Gorge are amazingly accurate. Especially the HRRR and WRF models for east gorge regions.
I usually look at both human forcasts and the computer models. If there are discrepancies I try to understand why.
My very limited understanding of the different models is that WRF is based upon GFS (pressure based model) which is then post processed to include terrain data (topology, plants etc.). I think that HRRR is perhaps better at forcasting storm systems and clouds.
The resolution is how detailed the data was modeled on (like pixels on a screen). Thus a 3k resolution would have been modeled on much more detailed data than a 15k resolution forcast.
Perhaps an expert will chime in and correct/provide more details.
_________________
Kiting starts at 40MPH |
|
|
laf1greg
Since 02 Jun 2018
11 Posts
|
| Mon Jun 04, 18 5:23 pm |
|
|
| Usually high resolution models like HRRR take into consideration terrain and local factors. And the high resolution models contains a lot more data so they are usually harder to get (in europe some country like France sell their high resolution models, germany has one covering only germany). Here in america we are lucky to have some from NOAA and canada weather agency for free that I display on igetwind.
|
|
|
MikeZ
Since 17 Jul 2012
207 Posts
Beaverton / Seaside / Govy
Stoked
|
| Tue Jun 05, 18 2:50 pm |
|
|
| bigjohn wrote: | My very limited understanding of the different models is that WRF is based upon GFS (pressure based model) which is then post processed to include terrain data (topology, plants etc.). I think that HRRR is perhaps better at forcasting storm systems and clouds.
The resolution is how detailed the data was modeled on (like pixels on a screen). Thus a 3k resolution would have been modeled on much more detailed data than a 15k resolution forcast.
Perhaps an expert will chime in and correct/provide more details. |
While the GFS is a fundamentally different type of weather model than WRF, it does have topography and all that included throughout. It's just at a relatively low resolution, since it covers the entire globe.
The WRF isn't an actual forecast, but a model that is used for many different forecast systems, locations, and purposes. Your could download the code and run it yourself. It's typically run at higher resolutions, since it's usually set up to cover specific regions, rather than globally. It frequently uses GFS output for initial and boundary conditions.
The HRRR is one particular instance of a WRF-based forecast. The UW WRF forecasts are another. I actually run a WRF-based forecast as one aspect of my work...
|
|
|
bigjohn
Since 13 Mar 2012
663 Posts
Addicted
|
| Tue Jun 05, 18 9:33 pm |
|
|
@Mike - Thanks for the correction. I love trying to learn about this stuff.
@laf1greg - I just noticed if you press the ? on your site you provide more insight into the different models provided. This is helpful. It would be nice if there were more details regarding when one model might tend to be more accurate than another.
_________________
Kiting starts at 40MPH |
|
|
wylieflyote
Since 30 Jun 2006
1647 Posts
Puget Sound & Wa. Coast
XTreme Poster
|
| Wed Jun 06, 18 6:22 am |
|
|
"It would be nice if there were more details regarding when one model might tend to be more accurate than another."
Please, For the dummy can I just be told what to set the page up with for the most accurate?
_________________
CGKA Member
-------
Kip Wylie |
|
|
bigjohn
Since 13 Mar 2012
663 Posts
Addicted
|
| Wed Jun 06, 18 7:01 am |
|
|
| wylieflyote wrote: | "It would be nice if there were more details regarding when one model might tend to be more accurate than another."
Please, For the dummy can I just be told what to set the page up with for the most accurate? |
Kip, Once again I'm posting about stuff that I am really just a novice, but it seems to me that different forecasting models should be better in different locations (or perhaps at different times depending upon what is driving the wind (storm, trades, heat on desert etc.)).
I am hoping to gain a better understanding of underlying conditions that different models excel at forecasting so that I have a better sense of which model to trust depending upon where I am kiting.
But yes - I agree - It would be nice to have this all simplified in a simple table that says in this condition use this model so we can just focus on where to go and what kite size to put up...
_________________
Kiting starts at 40MPH |
|
|
wylieflyote
Since 30 Jun 2006
1647 Posts
Puget Sound & Wa. Coast
XTreme Poster
|
| Wed Jun 06, 18 7:05 am |
|
|
Probably true.
Whereas you folks down there in the Ditch are benefited by thermal gradients, mostly what I'm getting up here in Puget Sound/Tacoma/Seattle is pure pressure gradients with very little thermal help.
So... different models?
_________________
CGKA Member
-------
Kip Wylie |
|
|
laf1greg
Since 02 Jun 2018
11 Posts
|
| Thu Jun 07, 18 3:41 am |
|
|
| Quote: | | I just noticed if you press the ? on your site you provide more insight into the different models provided. This is helpful. It would be nice if there were more details regarding when one model might tend to be more accurate than another. |
Great!
From my personal experience the best way to know if a model works in your area is by observation. With experiences you will know wich model is reliable or not. And one thing about comparing different models is that if they all agree you know there is more chance their prediction is right.
One other thing : the scale of the model has to be adjusted : for one particular model in one particular season 19-22 mph maybe means 25-30 mph. On another spots (in a particular season) a model showing 40mph can mean 20mph (for example hot air over a cold lake produce a dome effect here in canada in spring and the opposite in autumn where wind gets strong). So obsersation is key to understand what works in your area. That's why I added a comment section in each spot so people who know local wind can write their forecast evaluation.
|
|
|
ldhr
Since 21 Jul 2009
1487 Posts
Hood River
XTreme Poster
|
| Thu Jun 07, 18 7:12 am |
|
|
| I look out the window and if the trees are moving igotwind igokite.
|
|
|
Sella
Since 21 Apr 2007
1794 Posts
Doin' The Dalles
FLY'IN HIGH PIE GUY
|
| Thu Jun 07, 18 7:30 am |
|
|
| ldhr wrote: | | I look out the window and if the trees are moving igotwind igokite. |
My exact same subscription. Lucky to live in a place where no wind days are necessary so I can mow my real lawn and not the rivers.
|
|
|
wylieflyote
Since 30 Jun 2006
1647 Posts
Puget Sound & Wa. Coast
XTreme Poster
|
| Thu Jun 07, 18 8:51 am |
|
|
I once purchased some windsurfing gear from a Hood River person.... He told me he doesn't even look at the river until he hears his garbage can roll down the alley.
_________________
CGKA Member
-------
Kip Wylie |
|
|
laf1greg
Since 02 Jun 2018
11 Posts
|
|
|
|
