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Keep an eye on Jones today...

 
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MikeZ

Since 17 Jul 2012
207 Posts
Beaverton / Seaside / Govy
Stoked



PostMon Apr 07, 14 12:05 pm    Keep an eye on Jones today... Reply with quote

I'm not sure it's going to go, or how strong if it does, but I think the chances are good for this afternoon.

I can't make it, but I'd be tempted to head out there if I could. We're getting into Jones Beach season!

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caps

Since 23 Dec 2010
343 Posts

Obsessed



PostMon Apr 07, 14 2:33 pm     Reply with quote

Nice call!

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OG

Since 07 Jun 2011
533 Posts

Addicted



PostMon Apr 07, 14 3:38 pm     Reply with quote

ya, really nice call. MikeZ, what do you look at to make your judgement?

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stringy

Since 23 Jun 2006
1724 Posts
vancouver
XTreme Poster



PostMon Apr 07, 14 9:20 pm    Re: Keep an eye on Jones today... Reply with quote

MikeZ wrote:
I'm not sure it's going to go, or how strong if it does, but I think the chances are good for this afternoon.

I can't make it, but I'd be tempted to head out there if I could. We're getting into Jones Beach season!


your hunch was good! good 10m that is.
got there after 4:30 and had the low tide to myself. couple of fishermen on the shore but the main riding area was free of any lines or poles. went over to nuke alley but wasn't that great so just hugged the oregon side since I was solo. would hate to be on the other side of the island and have a mishap. not even a fisherman could see me over there. anyhow I just look at the windalert forcast and it actually did say it was going to ramp up in the afternoon.


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MikeZ

Since 17 Jul 2012
207 Posts
Beaverton / Seaside / Govy
Stoked



PostTue Apr 08, 14 8:47 am     Reply with quote

OG wrote:
ya, really nice call. MikeZ, what do you look at to make your judgement?

The Jones Beach predictors are pretty well known:

1) onshore pressure gradient between Astoria and Portland/Kelso
2) a good temperature gradient between Astoria and Portland/Kelso
3) clouds burned off at least past Jones

You can forecast the first two by looking at the UW WRF forecasts. For my work we actually have what I consider to be easier and more informative graphics, but I can't share these online.

The clouds you can see looking at the weather service visible satellite imagery. And you can check the progress of the gradients at: http://nwwind.net/wind.php?region=9

If you see the temperature peak and then begin to fall early at Astoria, and the wind shift and come from the west, then that's usually a good sign that Jones is going to go.

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