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JeffT
Since 07 Jul 2012
238 Posts
Deep Southern Portland
Stoked
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 Fri Jun 14, 13 11:19 am What to do tomorrow |
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Any ideas?
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Jeff |
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dangler
Since 26 Feb 2006
1781 Posts
WINDY SPOTS
XTreme Poster
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| Fri Jun 14, 13 11:30 am ? |
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self flaggellation
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ldhr
Since 21 Jul 2009
1490 Posts
Hood River
XTreme Poster
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| Fri Jun 14, 13 1:01 pm |
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Jones Beach reaching near 20's WNW winds.
Stevenson and the Corridor reaching upper teens to maybe 20 in the afternoon.
The North and Central Coast seeing W to WNW low teens.
The South Coast seeing NW lower teens.
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JeffT
Since 07 Jul 2012
238 Posts
Deep Southern Portland
Stoked
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| Fri Jun 14, 13 1:15 pm |
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Jones is going to blow near 20?
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satpm.png |
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Jeff |
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MikeZ
Since 17 Jul 2012
207 Posts
Beaverton / Seaside / Govy
Stoked
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| Fri Jun 14, 13 1:53 pm |
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| JeffT wrote: | | Jones is going to blow near 20? |
At least...
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Jonpnw
Since 22 Jul 2010
1327 Posts
Pacific Northwest
XTreme Poster
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| Fri Jun 14, 13 1:57 pm WylieFlyote |
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Maybe WylieFlyote will remind us Jones rookies again how it works?
If it is cold and grey in Astoria and Hot and Sunny in Portland ?
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ldhr
Since 21 Jul 2009
1490 Posts
Hood River
XTreme Poster
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| Sat Jun 15, 13 8:00 pm |
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just saying......
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jones.gif |
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JeffT
Since 07 Jul 2012
238 Posts
Deep Southern Portland
Stoked
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| Sat Jun 15, 13 8:45 pm |
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Word
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Jeff |
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Dern
Since 11 Jul 2010
545 Posts
Vancouver, WA
Addicted
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| Sun Jun 16, 13 12:03 am |
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| It was pretty good. Jones, that is. The tide sucked, though.
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wylieflyote
Since 30 Jun 2006
1648 Posts
Puget Sound & Wa. Coast
XTreme Poster
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| Sun Jun 16, 13 8:31 am Re: WylieFlyote |
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| Jonpnw wrote: | Maybe WylieFlyote will remind us Jones rookies again how it works?
If it is cold and grey in Astoria and Hot and Sunny in Portland ? |
Sorry, did not see this, and you had your "OSR" from another post.
Things to watch for Jones:
10 degrees or more forecast temp difference Astoria-Portland (or Kelso)
Pressure difference begins to increase around 11AM (with AST moving higher than PDX)
You can also look at a Sat image at around 10AM and see marine clouds over AST with the clear edge sitting just west of Jones, or even I-5.
For huge days at Jones I am drawn to this beach whenever the TV weather guy says "Our heat wave will end tomorrow when the marine layer returns" The marine push can make for 7M days.
The sat image is messy this morning, but the valley heat might clear the clouds away for your Fathers Day afternoon at Jones:
Hope this helps. Kip
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Kip Wylie |
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Gator
Since 15 Sep 2012
41 Posts
Portland
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| Sun Jun 16, 13 9:35 am |
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| Any reason why the various wind prediction models always seem to get Jones wrong? i.e. iWindSurf always seems to significantly under-predict.
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JeffT
Since 07 Jul 2012
238 Posts
Deep Southern Portland
Stoked
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| Sun Jun 16, 13 9:48 am |
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I was expecting the large low pressure offshore (pulled the gorge wind eastward) to negate the Ast-Port differential. I guess the east wind in the gorge combined with no wind in Portland caused a BAD (big ass differential) for Jones to work.
Thanks Kip
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Jeff |
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MikeZ
Since 17 Jul 2012
207 Posts
Beaverton / Seaside / Govy
Stoked
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| Sun Jun 16, 13 4:21 pm |
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| JeffT wrote: | I was expecting the large low pressure offshore (pulled the gorge wind eastward) to negate the Ast-Port differential. I guess the east wind in the gorge combined with no wind in Portland caused a BAD (big ass differential) for Jones to work.
Thanks Kip |
The low offshore was/is an upper level low. It may make things a bit unsettled, but it probably won't have a major direct impact on surface winds. The main issue (imho) is how it affects high clouds and then the surface temperature.
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MikeZ
Since 17 Jul 2012
207 Posts
Beaverton / Seaside / Govy
Stoked
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| Sun Jun 16, 13 4:25 pm |
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| Gator wrote: | | Any reason why the various wind prediction models always seem to get Jones wrong? i.e. iWindSurf always seems to significantly under-predict. |
The enhanced wind in the Jones area is a small-scale feature, driven by terrain and local gradients that aren't well resolved by models unless they are really high resolution. And that's expensive to do.
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Dern
Since 11 Jul 2010
545 Posts
Vancouver, WA
Addicted
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| Sun Jun 16, 13 9:22 pm |
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| Gator wrote: | | Any reason why the various wind prediction models always seem to get Jones wrong? i.e. iWindSurf always seems to significantly under-predict. |
Jones is primarily thermal driven between Astoria and Kelso and PDX. Like other thermal-affected areas, the wind forecast models do not seem to do well in accounting for thermal effects, at least not in regard to very local features that help to throttle large air movements into a small space (venturi-esque). I think this is why in the summertime you will see some places consistently go off bigger than the forecast (I see this at Manzanita and Stevenson often, too).
Anyway, for Jones to go off for good 20mph avg. wind you will want a .05 pressure gradient between Astoria and Kelso (high pressure at the coast, low inland). In the summer you will typically see this condition met around 1-2PM, which is when the temperature difference between Astoria and Kelso/PDX reaches 10-15 °F. Use the Sensors page above for the hourly pressure and temperature readings.
When the typical thermal action happens and there is also a high pressure zone out off the coast, Jones fires off 1) much earlier in the day 2) 28+ mph on Washington side and 3) well past sundown. This is just an observation but also makes sense since it would increase the pressure gradient from the coast to Kelso and PDX.
Also when PDX / Kelso get a heat wave and the gorge shuts down or goes easterly, so long as the coast doesn't get roasty-toasty, Jones will also fire off big.
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jahmbi
Since 28 Jul 2005
622 Posts
MORE HUMAN THAN HUMAN
River Troll
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| Mon Jun 17, 13 9:05 pm |
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WHY DONT YOU WAKE UP , IF YOU ARE WONDERING WHAT TO DO THE NEXT DAY ... AND IN THAT MORNING SPANK YOUR MONKEY   TROLL
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7700_10151549485445729_988561498_n.jpg |
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